I heard a radio commercial for some organization selling chances on a flash motorcycle for $25 each. They claimed that only 3500 tickets would be sold, so the chances of winning should be relatively good. One chance in 3500 doesn't seem too bad.
I got to thinking about how people perceive numerical relationships in the light of what they would like the numbers to mean.
Imagine you had 3500 pistols arranged on the floor. One and only one of these weapons is loaded and has a round in the chamber. You can select any one gun, put the barrel to your head and squeeeze the trigger. If you're still alive after this you get, a million dollars. This time the one chance in 3500 that you blow your brains out appears quite remote.
In the motorcycle raffle, you have a 3499/3500 (99.97%) likelihood of losing. In the loaded pistol lottery, you have a 1/3500 (0.03%) likelihood of losing. But, most people see both situations as providing a fair possibility of a favorable outcome.
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